Roger Clemens and Cy (Again)
Even though I don’t always agree with everything Jayson Stark has to say, I’d have to say he’s dead on in this recent column. If you’ve been paying attention to my site, you might recall that I made a case a while back arguing that Roger Clemens should overwhelmingly win the Cy Young this year. It seems like in this particular domain, Jayson Stark and I are definitely on the same page:
And Clemens has made nine starts in which he has given up one earned run or none without getting a win. That’s as many as Carpenter, Willis, Santana and Colon combined. So if Rodrigo Lopez (with a 4.97 ERA) and Mike Maroth (4.82) have more wins than Roger Clemens, shouldn’t it be clear to anyone paying attention that “wins” might be the most overrated individual stat in baseball? Come on. Admit it already.
It’s so true. However, as Stark explains in this article, history suggests that in the eyes of Cy Young voters, wins rule and the actual meaningful and relevant pitching statistics are nothing but secondary considerations. Consider these comments given by Joe Morgan during a live ESPN online Q/A session (note that I found these comments from firejoemorgan.blogspot.com:
I look at wins first in the Cy Young and then ERA to break a tie…At this point I think Carpenter and Dontrelle Willis have a leg up in that category… I don’t think you can win the Cy Young with 15 or fewer wins and the Astros have to score to get him some wins. They’ve been shut out seven times in Clemens starts. But as I’ve said, NO ONE has pitched better than Roger Clemens this season.
Gah! It’s unbelievable how many of the people who directly determine the award winner have a similar attitude. Morgan even admits that he thinks Clemens has been the best pitcher in baseball! Yet he still feels that Carpenter or Willis should get the Cy. Granted, if a pitcher wins 20 games, it is likely that he is having a good season. Giving wins so much weight in the Cy Young decision, though, grossly devalues the award and does injustices to some of the greatest pitching seasons in history. Unfortunately, even though I think Clemens is the clear-cut choice, I would be shocked if Carpenter doesn’t win it in a walk.
